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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|