Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most conservative government in recent memory with a more moderate and pragmatic alliance during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were called after the collapse of the outgoing government in June, when rightwing politician Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies deemed him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his partners refused to implement a radical 10-point anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to patrol borders, rejecting all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although backing of the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the rightwing, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but none is projected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, typically an significant force on the EU and world stage, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to achieve majority status. No single party ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen every four years – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that wins 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in many European nations, Dutch politics have been characterized in modern times by a significant drop in support for the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the military to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to just five seats in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who joined political life just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is on track to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Led by the seasoned ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its platform.
Three additional groups look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the once popular, now controversy-plagued FvD – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to decline, with the NSC not even sure of legislative seats.
The top issues so far have been immigration, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against planned emergency reception centres for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the nation is lacking 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the government program. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, most involving a mix of political groups from moderate left and center right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups possibly incorporating the conservative party.
