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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.